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7 May 2013
Forex Flash: What do you do in a week with no data releases? - DBS Group
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - DBS Group analysts ask, “What do you do in a week with no data releases?” from the US.
The answer, it seems is something that they almost never do - “look at what consensus thinks. Growth first, and consensus is very optimistic.” They feel that the next quarter is going to be tough, thanks to the sequester, but not all that tough. They see that the consensus still thinks GDP will grow by 1.5% (QoQ,saar) in Q2. And it will accelerate, most think, to 2.3% in the third quarter. They write, “Not bad, given thatthe $85bn of sequester cuts is a number 20% bigger than what 2% GDP growth would have generated had it continued merrily along.” They wonder whether people expecting 4% GDP growth before the sequester came along? They write, “Probably not but this is a committee forecast; let’s just
go with it.”
They proceed and note that consensus thinks growth accelerates further to 2.6% in 4Q13, then onto 2.8%, 2.9 and 3.0% in the first 3 quarters of 2014. This shows steady acceleration back to potential (3%), attained over the next 6 quarters which they feel is a nice picture. They write, “Equity markets would be pleased, if they haven’t banked on it already.” Next, they ask, “What about the unemployment rate? That’s key, at least for the Fed, which says rates won’t go up until it falls below 6.5%. They see that consensus thinks the unemployment rate falls steadily, but only very slowly. Unemployment will end the third quarter of this year at 7.5%, its current rate, and fall by one tick per quarter through the end of 2014 which is pretty gradual. They finish by commenting that If one extends that path further, an unemployment rate of 6.5% is reached only in the first quarter of 2016 which is a long way away.
The answer, it seems is something that they almost never do - “look at what consensus thinks. Growth first, and consensus is very optimistic.” They feel that the next quarter is going to be tough, thanks to the sequester, but not all that tough. They see that the consensus still thinks GDP will grow by 1.5% (QoQ,saar) in Q2. And it will accelerate, most think, to 2.3% in the third quarter. They write, “Not bad, given thatthe $85bn of sequester cuts is a number 20% bigger than what 2% GDP growth would have generated had it continued merrily along.” They wonder whether people expecting 4% GDP growth before the sequester came along? They write, “Probably not but this is a committee forecast; let’s just
go with it.”
They proceed and note that consensus thinks growth accelerates further to 2.6% in 4Q13, then onto 2.8%, 2.9 and 3.0% in the first 3 quarters of 2014. This shows steady acceleration back to potential (3%), attained over the next 6 quarters which they feel is a nice picture. They write, “Equity markets would be pleased, if they haven’t banked on it already.” Next, they ask, “What about the unemployment rate? That’s key, at least for the Fed, which says rates won’t go up until it falls below 6.5%. They see that consensus thinks the unemployment rate falls steadily, but only very slowly. Unemployment will end the third quarter of this year at 7.5%, its current rate, and fall by one tick per quarter through the end of 2014 which is pretty gradual. They finish by commenting that If one extends that path further, an unemployment rate of 6.5% is reached only in the first quarter of 2016 which is a long way away.