交易新闻
7 May 2013
Forex Flash: RBA will probably wait till capex before any rate cut - Westpac
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - A 50/50 pricing in financial markets ahead of the risk event RBA decision today "should ensure lively trade in AUD", says Sean Callow, FX strategist at Westpac.
"Only a handful of economists expect a 25bp cash rate cut today to 2.75% (with none of the big 4 local banks for a cut) but many now see the easing no later than June" Mr. Callow notes.
Sean continues: "The case for cutting today is essentially that Q1 CPI affirmed the existing “scope” to ease policy, growth remains clearly sub-trend with housing construction patchy and business confidence seems to have weakened further."
However, Westpac believe "the RBA will be very keen to see the capex intentions survey on 30 May to judge whether there really is cause to be hopeful over investment once the mining cycle has peaked later this year."
Giving his take on the potential AUD/USD reaction, Sean said: "It will probably react simply to the 2.75% vs 3% outcome rather than the accompanying commentary; the steady hand we expect should be worth about 40-50 pips on AUD/USD but a rate cut would probably produce a larger move given it would trigger stops under the 2 month lows."
"Only a handful of economists expect a 25bp cash rate cut today to 2.75% (with none of the big 4 local banks for a cut) but many now see the easing no later than June" Mr. Callow notes.
Sean continues: "The case for cutting today is essentially that Q1 CPI affirmed the existing “scope” to ease policy, growth remains clearly sub-trend with housing construction patchy and business confidence seems to have weakened further."
However, Westpac believe "the RBA will be very keen to see the capex intentions survey on 30 May to judge whether there really is cause to be hopeful over investment once the mining cycle has peaked later this year."
Giving his take on the potential AUD/USD reaction, Sean said: "It will probably react simply to the 2.75% vs 3% outcome rather than the accompanying commentary; the steady hand we expect should be worth about 40-50 pips on AUD/USD but a rate cut would probably produce a larger move given it would trigger stops under the 2 month lows."