India: CPI likely to increase to a 2.74% pace in March - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting that India’s CPI is likely to increase to a 2.74% y/y pace in March but core CPI is expected to decelerate further.

Key Quotes

“A lower base in March last year may contribute to higher inflation. After 5 months of deflation food prices are likely to increase for a second straight month, albeit not by much, limiting any further deceleration in overall CPI. Meanwhile fuel prices are likely to remain soft.”

“After having cut policy rates last week we do not expect the likely slight increase in inflation to impact policy, with the central bank predicting a gradual pick up in inflation in the months ahead.”