US: NFP likely to rebound to around 200,000 in April – Danske Bank

The US jobs report is due at 14:30 CET and as employment continues to rise, the main focus is on average hourly earnings, as many economists are still puzzled about why wage growth (and inflation) remains subdued, given that the labour market has tightened substantially, suggests the research team at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.2% m/m in April, in line with the recent trend, implying an unchanged annual growth rate of 2.7% y/y. We expect employment growth to rebound from the weak print of 103,000 in March to around 200,000 in April. We would not be surprised to see a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.0%, as employment growth remains higher than labour force growth.”