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1 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: EUR/USD end year forecast remains at 1.20 – UBS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - “UBS Economics expects March's employment report in the week ahead to show 190k in new payrolls and for the unemployment rate to decline again from 7.7 to 7.6%,” says Mansoor Mohi-uddin Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research.
“That suggests the FOMC will signal - perhaps as early as the June meeting when its next updates its Summary of Economic Projections - that it will start slowing down its asset purchases in the second half of 2013,” the analyst adds, expanding: “As a result we see the dollar outperforming the other major currencies with our end year forecasts remaining 1.20 EURUSD.”
He also suggests to sell into any rally post-Draghi's Thursday press conference, when “The single currency may bounce if Draghi successfully navigates his press conference and the ECB keeps interest rates on hold,” Mansoor concludes.
“That suggests the FOMC will signal - perhaps as early as the June meeting when its next updates its Summary of Economic Projections - that it will start slowing down its asset purchases in the second half of 2013,” the analyst adds, expanding: “As a result we see the dollar outperforming the other major currencies with our end year forecasts remaining 1.20 EURUSD.”
He also suggests to sell into any rally post-Draghi's Thursday press conference, when “The single currency may bounce if Draghi successfully navigates his press conference and the ECB keeps interest rates on hold,” Mansoor concludes.