UK: Brexit negotiations in the forefront – Westpac

Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac notes that UK’s Department for Exiting EU issued a series of papers (on goods, data and information access and protection and the Europe’s Court of Justice) in advance of negotiations resuming with EU next week.

Key Quotes

“Although UK seems to be a relaxing its stance on several issues, these papers highlight the complexity and all-encompassing impact of Brexit and how much needs to be negotiated before key trade agreements can begin. Should the gulf between EU and UK over “divorce” payments widen it may further undermine confidence in GBP.”

“Housing and consumer confidence surveys may reflect household balance sheet squeeze risk for consumption. Although this week’s CBI manufacturing survey was upbeat, the softness of recent inflation data and potential for Brexit negotiation uncertainty is likely to keep BoE (meet 14th Sep) on hold. Survey data could be critical for the vulnerable GBP next week.”