UK: Delay in triggering of Article 50 likely - RBS

Research Team at RBS, notes that the UK High Court has ruled that a parliamentary vote is required for the UK Government to trigger Article 50 (the formal EU exit process).

Key Quotes

“The combination of an appeal to the Supreme Court and the required Parliamentary votes could conceivably delay the triggering of Article 50 beyond the Government’s self-imposed end-March 2017 deadline, but we do not see any compelling reason why the required votes could not held before this deadline – Parliament is not being asked to debate EU exit from first principles, it is being asked to formally acknowledge the outcome of the referendum (the realpolitik amounts to a combination of Parliament seeking to influence the Government’s negotiating stance and opposition parties attempting to undermine the authority of the Government).

Whilst there is a natural market tendency to equate more parliamentary involvement with a higher probability of a ‘soft’ Brexit, in practice we doubt this court ruling will make much difference – we doubt the UK Government’s negotiating position will change meaningfully and, more importantly, the EU’s position towards the UK is unlikely to change.”