Key events in the week ahead – Nomura

Research Analysts at Nomura in its latest note, elaborated on a list of key economic reports due later this week.

Key Quotes:

“US CPI (Tuesday): Excluding food and energy, we expect that core CPI will show another trend-like increase of 0.17% m-o-m (2.3% y-o-y) in July. Core goods prices likely declined again as imported consumer goods prices declined in July. In contrast, core service prices likely rose steadily, largely led by higher rent.”

“UK inflation (Tuesday): We expect CPI inflation to remain at 0.5% y-o-y, with base effects from games and toy prices bearing down on the rise. This would be about 0.1pp below what the BoE forecast in its August Inflation Report.”

“Germany ZEW index (Tuesday): We expect the ZEW expectations index to rebound to 1.0 in August following a sharp decline of -6.8 in July.”

“UK labour market report (Wednesday): Following the UK referendum, we expect a 20k rise in jobless claims, which would be a bit more than had been experienced in the lead up to the vote. This should take the claimant count rate up to 2.3%.”

“FOMC minutes (Wednesday): We will see if the Committee cites the reasons behind this addition. We suspect the change reflects two factors: 1) better economic data and 2) easier financial conditions since the last FOMC meeting. “