এখন থেকে আমরা Elev8
আমরা শুধুমাত্র একটি ব্রোকার নই। আমরা একটি সর্বাত্মক ট্রেডিং ইকোসিস্টেম—বিশ্লেষণ, ট্রেড, এবং প্রবৃদ্ধির জন্য আপনার যা কিছু প্রয়োজন তা এক জায়গায়। আপনার ট্রেডিং উন্নত করতে প্রস্তুত?
ট্রেডিং এর খবর
27 Apr 2015
ECB QE: Are there enough Bunds? – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Abhishek Singhania of Deutsche Bank, notes that the major concern of EBC’s QE is whether there are enough bonds in the core countries and in Germany in particular for the ECB to buy given the 25% issue limits and the -20bp yield floor on bonds purchased.
Key Quotes
“These concerns are partially offset by German bond trading at 125% of par which reduces the par amount of bonds required to meet the purchase target in market value terms and the inclusion of agencies such as KFW, Rentebank, LBW and NRW Bank.”
“In the first month of the QE programme the ECB bought EUR 11.1bn (in market value terms) of German bonds. If purchases are continued at this pace for 19 months it will result in total buying of EUR 210bn of German bonds.”
“The nominal and market value of outstanding of German eligible bonds in the 2Y-31Y maturity bucket is EUR 944bn and 1,182bn respectively. Based on current yield levels the nominal and market value of eligible bonds is EUR 737bn and EUR 955bn respectively. Here we have made the assumption that all inflation linked bonds are always eligible as the floor of -20bp is not applicable for real yields on inflation linked bonds. The 25% limit of purchases applied to eligible bonds would result in purchases of a maximum EUR 239bn of bonds.”
“At present German nominal government bonds up to 4Y sector are ineligible because of the -20bp floor on yields. If bonds up to the 7Y sector started trading below -20bp the eligible universe would shrink such that the Bundesbank might not be able to purchase the required amount of bonds.”
“In such a scenario the alternatives for purchases to continue at a pace of EUR 60bn a month are: the ECB could revisit the 25% issue limit especially for bonds launched before 2012 which do not have CACs, the ECB could expand the list of agencies which are eligible, the ECB could expand the asset purchases programme to include other assets including potentially corporate and/or bank bonds or the ECB could redistribute the Bundesbank's share of purchases to other central banks as was done in March when there were no purchases of public sector securities in Greece, Cyprus and Estonia.”
Key Quotes
“These concerns are partially offset by German bond trading at 125% of par which reduces the par amount of bonds required to meet the purchase target in market value terms and the inclusion of agencies such as KFW, Rentebank, LBW and NRW Bank.”
“In the first month of the QE programme the ECB bought EUR 11.1bn (in market value terms) of German bonds. If purchases are continued at this pace for 19 months it will result in total buying of EUR 210bn of German bonds.”
“The nominal and market value of outstanding of German eligible bonds in the 2Y-31Y maturity bucket is EUR 944bn and 1,182bn respectively. Based on current yield levels the nominal and market value of eligible bonds is EUR 737bn and EUR 955bn respectively. Here we have made the assumption that all inflation linked bonds are always eligible as the floor of -20bp is not applicable for real yields on inflation linked bonds. The 25% limit of purchases applied to eligible bonds would result in purchases of a maximum EUR 239bn of bonds.”
“At present German nominal government bonds up to 4Y sector are ineligible because of the -20bp floor on yields. If bonds up to the 7Y sector started trading below -20bp the eligible universe would shrink such that the Bundesbank might not be able to purchase the required amount of bonds.”
“In such a scenario the alternatives for purchases to continue at a pace of EUR 60bn a month are: the ECB could revisit the 25% issue limit especially for bonds launched before 2012 which do not have CACs, the ECB could expand the list of agencies which are eligible, the ECB could expand the asset purchases programme to include other assets including potentially corporate and/or bank bonds or the ECB could redistribute the Bundesbank's share of purchases to other central banks as was done in March when there were no purchases of public sector securities in Greece, Cyprus and Estonia.”