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27 Apr 2015
RBNZ Preview: Pushing NZD lower - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - A stronger NZD and recent RBNZ comments suggest an effort to push the currency lower, notes Charles St-Arnaud, Economist at Nomura.
Key Quotes
"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds its next policy meeting on 30 April and we expect it to keep its policy rate unchanged. At the 11 March meeting, the RBNZ said that “future interest rate adjustments, either up or down, will depend on the emerging flow of economic data”, confirming that it did not see a need to change its policy rate for some time."
"At the April meeting, we believe the RBNZ may modify its statement slightly. While we believe the RBNZ will continue to signal that it does not intend to change its policy rate in the near future, as it remains confident about the economic outlook, we think it will likely suggest that monetary policy may need to be kept accommodative for longer. This is consistent with recent RBNZ comments, which said that “The Reserve Bank today said it will ensure that monetary policy is stimulatory to support output growth above potential, to help lift inflation back to target.”
"Because the economic momentum remains solid and low inflation will likely be temporary, as it results from lower oil prices, we believe the RBNZ’s recent comments were mainly aimed at talking down the currency. This would not be surprising because NZD has appreciated since the March meeting, despite a decline in the terms of trade. Moreover, the timing of the comment was also interesting, as it coincided with NZD reaching its highest level on a TWI basis since July 2014."
"Based on this, we believe the RBNZ will reiterate its view that “on a trade-weighted basis, the NZD remains unjustifiably high and unsustainable in terms of New Zealand’s long-term economic fundamentals. A substantial downward correction in the real exchange rate is needed to put New Zealand’s external accounts on a more sustainable footing.” We believe that this comment may even be strengthened by adding a reference to the divergence between NZD and the terms of trade, in an effort to push the currency lower."
"Our view remains that the RBNZ will keep rates unchanged until 2016."
Key Quotes
"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds its next policy meeting on 30 April and we expect it to keep its policy rate unchanged. At the 11 March meeting, the RBNZ said that “future interest rate adjustments, either up or down, will depend on the emerging flow of economic data”, confirming that it did not see a need to change its policy rate for some time."
"At the April meeting, we believe the RBNZ may modify its statement slightly. While we believe the RBNZ will continue to signal that it does not intend to change its policy rate in the near future, as it remains confident about the economic outlook, we think it will likely suggest that monetary policy may need to be kept accommodative for longer. This is consistent with recent RBNZ comments, which said that “The Reserve Bank today said it will ensure that monetary policy is stimulatory to support output growth above potential, to help lift inflation back to target.”
"Because the economic momentum remains solid and low inflation will likely be temporary, as it results from lower oil prices, we believe the RBNZ’s recent comments were mainly aimed at talking down the currency. This would not be surprising because NZD has appreciated since the March meeting, despite a decline in the terms of trade. Moreover, the timing of the comment was also interesting, as it coincided with NZD reaching its highest level on a TWI basis since July 2014."
"Based on this, we believe the RBNZ will reiterate its view that “on a trade-weighted basis, the NZD remains unjustifiably high and unsustainable in terms of New Zealand’s long-term economic fundamentals. A substantial downward correction in the real exchange rate is needed to put New Zealand’s external accounts on a more sustainable footing.” We believe that this comment may even be strengthened by adding a reference to the divergence between NZD and the terms of trade, in an effort to push the currency lower."
"Our view remains that the RBNZ will keep rates unchanged until 2016."