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24 Apr 2015
UK GDP to slow to 0.5% q/q in Q1 – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, previews the UK Q1 GDP data release, anticipating a 0.5% qoq gain.
Key Quotes
“The forecasting dilemma around the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP is whether to put more weight on the stronger business surveys (which point to 0.6% q/q growth, with upside risks) or the softer official output data (0.5% with downside risks). The former have the advantage of being more voluminous and more timely (with surveys typically stretching to March); the latter are a more thorough set of statistics and feed directly into the GDP estimate. We are guided more by the official data – even with some back-revisions/ mean-reversion, 0.5% q/q looks a little more likely than 0.6%.”
“The main output sub-components are expected to be rather divergent: fairly buoyant services growth (0.8%), a small rise in industrial production (0.1%) and a 1.8% q/q contraction in construction.”
Key Quotes
“The forecasting dilemma around the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP is whether to put more weight on the stronger business surveys (which point to 0.6% q/q growth, with upside risks) or the softer official output data (0.5% with downside risks). The former have the advantage of being more voluminous and more timely (with surveys typically stretching to March); the latter are a more thorough set of statistics and feed directly into the GDP estimate. We are guided more by the official data – even with some back-revisions/ mean-reversion, 0.5% q/q looks a little more likely than 0.6%.”
“The main output sub-components are expected to be rather divergent: fairly buoyant services growth (0.8%), a small rise in industrial production (0.1%) and a 1.8% q/q contraction in construction.”