交易新闻
23 Apr 2015
No change in inflation view by BOJ – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, today’s comments by Kuroda suggest BoJ remains positive on its inflation mandate and this month’s policy would likely be non-event.
Key Quotes
“With some suggesting the BOJ may ease its monetary stance further at the meeting on 30th April when the semi-annual report on the economy and inflation is released, the comments made by BOJ Governor Kuroda in parliament today certainly do not indicate any hint of a central bank considering further easing.”
“Of course, we could argue that the BOJ wishes to surprise the market like it did last October, but with Governor Kuroda long holding the view that inflation would start to rise in H2 2015, acting now would make little sense.”
“Certainly the lack of volatility today in USD/JPY does not suggest the market is considering any action at the end of the month. Indeed, there were more comments made about exiting QQE, whenever that might be, than about whether further easing might be needed and given recent developments in the labour market and evidence of higher wages, that makes sense.”
“Kuroda once again mentions higher inflation going forward and a target date of “about FY2015”, suggesting end-Q1 or Q2 next year. With crude oil prices showing some signs of upward pressure, the base effect unwind that will start in H2 might be more rapid than currently assumed. The confidence expressed by the BOJ on successfully lifting the economy out of its mild deflation mire seems to be shared increasingly by foreign investors.”
Key Quotes
“With some suggesting the BOJ may ease its monetary stance further at the meeting on 30th April when the semi-annual report on the economy and inflation is released, the comments made by BOJ Governor Kuroda in parliament today certainly do not indicate any hint of a central bank considering further easing.”
“Of course, we could argue that the BOJ wishes to surprise the market like it did last October, but with Governor Kuroda long holding the view that inflation would start to rise in H2 2015, acting now would make little sense.”
“Certainly the lack of volatility today in USD/JPY does not suggest the market is considering any action at the end of the month. Indeed, there were more comments made about exiting QQE, whenever that might be, than about whether further easing might be needed and given recent developments in the labour market and evidence of higher wages, that makes sense.”
“Kuroda once again mentions higher inflation going forward and a target date of “about FY2015”, suggesting end-Q1 or Q2 next year. With crude oil prices showing some signs of upward pressure, the base effect unwind that will start in H2 might be more rapid than currently assumed. The confidence expressed by the BOJ on successfully lifting the economy out of its mild deflation mire seems to be shared increasingly by foreign investors.”