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16 Apr 2015
China's weak data partly due to seasonal effects - Capital Economics
FXStreet (Bali) - Chang Liu, Economist at Capital Economics, notes that while output growth in China disappointed in Q1 (released earlier on Wednesday), part of the reason was seasonal effects which should disappear as soon as the data for April.
Key Quotes
"Data released on Wednesday showed a slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter to 7.0% y/y from 7.4% in Q4. Meanwhile, monthly data (also released on Wednesday) were hit by another bout of seasonal distortions caused by the unusually-late Chinese New Year. Most striking was the slowdown in industrial production growth to 5.6% y/y in March from 6.8%. Fixed investment also slowed from 13.9% to 13.5% (this is a year-to-date figure) and retail sales growth fell from 10.7% to 10.2%. Our view is that output growth probably declined more sharply than the GDP data show in Q1, but that some of that was a seasonal effect which should disappear as soon as the data for April."
"Further ahead, the property sector will probably remain a major drag on growth this year. But the labour market is tight, so prospects for a sustained rebound even if policy were loosened dramatically are limited. This is one reason not to expect a significant stimulus response. Indeed, with wage growth still in double digits, policymakers are likely to continue with moderate easing to limit downside risks while maintaining a focus on structural reform."
Key Quotes
"Data released on Wednesday showed a slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter to 7.0% y/y from 7.4% in Q4. Meanwhile, monthly data (also released on Wednesday) were hit by another bout of seasonal distortions caused by the unusually-late Chinese New Year. Most striking was the slowdown in industrial production growth to 5.6% y/y in March from 6.8%. Fixed investment also slowed from 13.9% to 13.5% (this is a year-to-date figure) and retail sales growth fell from 10.7% to 10.2%. Our view is that output growth probably declined more sharply than the GDP data show in Q1, but that some of that was a seasonal effect which should disappear as soon as the data for April."
"Further ahead, the property sector will probably remain a major drag on growth this year. But the labour market is tight, so prospects for a sustained rebound even if policy were loosened dramatically are limited. This is one reason not to expect a significant stimulus response. Indeed, with wage growth still in double digits, policymakers are likely to continue with moderate easing to limit downside risks while maintaining a focus on structural reform."