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19 Nov 2025
EUR: Holding up – ING
Despite one month realised EUR/USD volatility sinking to just 4.8%, one month traded volatility has picked up to 6.5%, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
A move under 1.1560/65 might cause some trouble
"This suggests investors have not given up on further EUR/USD moves this year. At the same time, the one month risk reversal is sitting bid for EUR calls and USD puts – suggesting investors are yet to throw in the towel on EUR/USD moving higher into year-end."
"That is mildly encouraging for our call of 1.18 by year-end, but that view does very much rely on softer US data coming in and the Fed cutting by 25bp in December. We should know a little more after tomorrow's release of the jobs report."
"The eurozone calendar looks quiet today, with just the final release of September inflation. We cannot see any ECB speakers of note. Expect continued narrow ranges for EUR/USD, but a move sub 1.1560/65 could cause some intraday trouble."