EUR quiet ahead of ECB Thursday – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating in a tight range and entering Monday’s NA session unchanged from Friday’s close, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Markets appear calm in face of French vote

"All eyes are on this Thursday’s ECB and a hold is widely expected, but market participants will be looking to the statement and press conference tone as well as the forecast update."

"The outlook for relative central bank policy remains a core component of our bullish EUR forecast and yield spreads continue to move higher, offering considerable fundamental support. Near-term risk lies with the French confidence vote, however the impact of recent political turbulence looks to have softened over the past week or so."

"The EUR’s technicals are bullish following Friday’s break of descending resistance drawn from the July highs. The RSI is also in the mid/upper 50s, offering confirmation to the overall bullish picture. We see no major resistance ahead of 1.18 and look to a near-term range bound between 1.1680 and 1.1780."