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20 Jun 2025
EUR outperforming in quiet trade – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is strong, up a decent 0.3% vs. the US Dollar (USD) as it outperforms all of the G10 currencies into Friday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
Fading geopolitical risk offers support
"The EUR’s modest gains are providing for a recovery from its minor pullback from last Thursday’s multi-year high, and the near-term balance of risk favors EUR strength as markets regain their composure following recent geopolitically-driven turbulence. This week’s fundamental developments have been important, as ECB policymakers have continued to confirm the ongoing shift toward a neutral stance."
"The fading of dovish pricing is supportive for the EUR, and we note that markets still see just over 20bpts of easing by year end. Next week’s calendar includes the release of preliminary PMI’s for the month of June."
"The trend is bullish and EUR/USD’s latest gains are providing support to momentum, lifting the RSI back toward 60. Medium-term support is expected around the 50 day MA (1.1362), however the near-term range is expected to be bound between 1.1450 support and resistance above 1.1580."