Fed's Goolsbee: We could see a direct tariff effect on prices within a month

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee fell in step with the Fed policymaker crowd on Tuesday, admitting that while things look good right now, policy uncertainty remains elevated at the hands of President Trump's whiplash tariff policies, and the Fed is beginning to brace for economic fallout from widespread tariffs.

Key highlights

We have to wait and see if tariffs have a big or small inflation impact.

We could see a direct tariff effect on prices within a month.

Slowdown related to tariffs might not show up for a while in the data.

All indicators point to stable and full employment.

Concerns that the dollar will stop being the world reserve currency look overstated.

Escalating unbounded trade war could spiral up the inflation rate.