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18 Mar 2025
EUR: Bundestag widely expected to approve spending – ING
The German Bundestag votes on Friedrich Merz’s fiscal spending plan today, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD can move above 1.0950 today
"It is widely expected that Merz has secured the two-thirds qualified majority to amend the constitutional debt brake, and we think developments on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal will be more impactful on the euro."
"Markets will also be closely watching the ZEW survey results, as that is the first set of sentiment indicators following the fiscal spending announcement. The index of German economic growth expectations had already accelerated in February ahead of some (more contained) expectations for fiscal support. Consensus is looking at a move from 26 to 48 in February, but we wouldn’t be surprised with an even bigger number."
"EUR/USD is eyeing 1.100 again. We aren’t convinced there is enough thrust for a decisive break higher, especially as the Fed may fail to trigger much further repricing in the USD curve. Still, we could see the pair move above 1.0950 today."